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元器件交易网讯 3月7日消息，美国科技博客TUAW昨日刊发了一篇讨论iPhone 6发布日期的文章。文章作者认为中国分析师孙昌旭“苹果iPhone 6将于6月发布9月上市”的预测不靠谱。
原文翻译如下：
传闻苹果已下了9000万的iPhone 6订单。相当不错！我的意思，虽然完全无法证实，但无论怎样都是欣闻。随着我继续阅读，我碰到了一个特别有趣的引言：
“预计iPhone 6将采用大屏，更好的摄像头及具备其他功能。预计在6月发布，9月开售。”
随着传言的滋生，这些结论可能是比较可信的：
大屏：几乎完全确定。
更好的相机：肯定。
其他特色功能：希望如此。
6月发布，9月上市：等一下......什么？
只要iPhone的传言兴起，我通常会忽视其不合逻辑的一面。但是，我非常好奇整个“6月发布”传言的源头。好像它来源于中国的分析师孙昌旭，她告诉腾讯科技“预计”iPhone 6将在WWDC上首次面世。这个猜测被多家科技媒体反复报道，逐渐变成了iPhone发布的日期。
如果这个猜测属实，它可能是新款iPhone发布和上一代iPhone推出之间最短的间隔了，同时也是蒂姆·库克首次在WWDC上推出iPhone。所以，不，历史不会站在孙昌旭的一边。
另外，“9月上市”的传言，是发布日期和上市日期之间隔了3个月。无需多言，根据近期的iPhone发布情况，这一理论完全不靠谱。最近4款iPhone发布和上市时间间隔如下：
iPhone 4:16天
iPhone 4s：10天
iPhone 5：9天
iPhone 5s/5c:：10天
苹果绝不允许一款新iPhone从发布到上市之间有3个月的空白，因为这会扼杀当前在售设备的销量。这不科学。
因此我们了解到，一个中国分析师对华尔街投资者的期望引起了一家美国财经网(博客,微博)站的反胃。并且我们想知道为啥苹果的股市如此的迷茫。
因此，苹果怎么会在6月推出新款iPhone呢？不可能。（元器件交易网刘光明 译）
外媒原文如下：
I was reading something today, which is a thing that I do from time to time, and this particular something happened to be on 24/7 Wall St. It was the rumor du jour that Apple just placed an order for 90 million units of the new iPhone. Neato! I mean, totally unverifiable, but neato anyway! As I continued to read, I came across a particularly interesting quote.
"The iPhone 6 is expected to feature a larger display, better camera and other features. It is expected to be announced in June, with sales starting in September."
As rumor fodder goes, these are mostly pretty safe:
Larger display: Almost certainly. Better camera: For sure. Other features: Well, I sure hope so. Announced in June, for sale in September: Wait... what?
I usually ignore the sillier of the iPhone rumors as soon as they pop up, but I was curious as to where the whole "June announcement" thing started. It seems to have originated from Chinese analyst Sun Changxu who told a Chinese-language site QQ Tech that "she expects" an iPhone 6 debut at WWDC. That guess was then repeated by a number of tech blogs and it became the go-to mythical debut date.
If this theory were to actually come to fruition, it would be the shortest time between the launch of a new iPhone and the announcement of its predecessor, as well as the first time in the Tim Cook era that a new iPhone debuted at WWDC. So, no, history isn"t exactly on Changxu"s side.
Add to that the whole "with sales starting in September" thing, which would put roughly three months between announcement and retail launch. Needless to say, that theory completely flies in the face of every recent iPhone launch. The length of time between announcement and release of the past 4 new iPhones goes like this:
iPhone 4: 16 days iPhone 4s: 10 days iPhone 5: 9 days iPhone 5s/5c: 10 days
Apple would never announce a new version of an existing product with a 3-month gap until shipment simply because it would kill sales of the current-gen device. It"s not rocket science.
So what we have is a U.S. financial website regurgitating an off-the-wall expectation of a Chinese analyst to Wall Street investors. And we wonder why the stock market is always so damn confused (and wrong) about Apple.
So why would Apple announce the new iPhone in June? It wouldn"t.
